The price of Bitcoin has surged 10% in the past week and traded above $68,200 today, its highest level since late July.
Despite its volatile performance over the past three months, experts suggest that Bitcoin is poised to make significant progress before the end of the year.
Here’s what experts say about Bitcoin’s trend and the factors affecting its price:
Initially, the upcoming US presidential election was seen as a source of uncertainty for Bitcoin’s price, but the outlook has changed. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, wrote in a recent note that a victory by both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris would be positive for Bitcoin.
“While a Trump victory is extremely likely to be positive for crypto, especially altcoins, we think a Harris administration would be equal to or slightly better than a Biden administration,” Thorn commented.
While polls show Harris slightly ahead, the market is reflecting these views, with Trump ahead of Harris on crypto prediction platform Polymarket.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer, said investors’ hesitancy about the election has given way to FOMO (fear of missing out). “There’s a lot of dust on the sidelines,” he said, and he predicts that any clarity on the election result could send Bitcoin soaring. Hougan believes that any scenario short of a Democratic takeover of the White House and Congress could send Bitcoin above $80,000 by the end of the year.
Bitcoin’s recent rally coincided with a trend experts are calling a “flowmageddon,” with nearly $1 billion flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs in two days. The influx signals a shift in institutional outlook, with more players viewing Bitcoin as a strategic rather than speculative asset, said Alice Liu, director of research at CoinMarketCap.
“Large companies and asset managers have begun to integrate Bitcoin into their investment portfolios or treasuries, which gives Bitcoin more legitimacy and reduces its perceived risk as a fringe investment,” Liu said.
Bitcoin ETFs have opened up new avenues for asset managers, who collectively manage around $39 trillion, according to Thorn. With Wall Street giants like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley already holding a combined $600 million in Bitcoin ETFs, more funds are expected to flow into BTC.
Despite the optimistic outlook, some risks remain. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, highlighted technological threats such as hacks and security breaches that could significantly impact investor confidence.
“The threat of hacking and security breaches remains significant, as a successful attack on an exchange or wallet could result in significant financial losses,” Lee warned.
Other risks include geopolitical tensions and the potential for governments to sell off confiscated Bitcoin. For example, Germany’s $2.3 billion Bitcoin sale this summer led to a 25% price drop. The U.S. government currently holds over $13 billion in confiscated Bitcoin, which could impact market dynamics if sold.
*This is not investment advice.