A CryptoQuant analyst believes the ongoing Bitcoin bull run might actually be at its later stages, citing market indicators.
In Bitcoin news today, the BTC extraordinary bull run, which began in January 2023, may be approaching its final stages, according to CryptoQuant analyst and Korea Community Manager Crypto Dan.
He highlighted several factors, including data from Bitcoin’s realized market cap UTXO Age Bands, suggesting that the crypto market has entered the latter phase of its current cycle.
Key Indicators Suggest the Late Stages of the Bull Cycle
In an analysis today, Crypto Dan stressed that Bitcoin’s price trends align with the historical pattern of alternating bull and bear cycles. The current bull run, featuring price increases and heightened investment, shows a mature cycle.
The Market Has Entered the Later Stages of the Current Bull Cycle
“The long-term trend remains downward, which suggests that the market is likely to reach its cycle peak by Q1 2025, or at the latest by Q2 2025.” – By @DanCoinInvestor
Full post 👇https://t.co/U6eLo2kUOc pic.twitter.com/qkJArfnbRK
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 6, 2025
Data reveals that 36% of Bitcoin’s market cap consists of coins traded within the past month. While this figure is lower than previous cycle peaks, it still indicates the market is nearing its top.
Bitcoin Realized Cap UTXO Age Bands | CryptoQuant
This trend suggests the market might peak between Q1 and Q2 of 2025. However, Crypto Dan notes that, unlike a single sharp price spike, the market may witness a gradual increase in the metric, potentially leading to overheating. This could result in a bear market.
Accordingly, he asks investors to be cautious, especially those holding large positions. The market analyst revealed that he would begin liquidating his holdings to mitigate risk while capitalizing on remaining market opportunities.
Context from Other Market Observers
Other analysts also believe the market could face roadblocks ahead. Markus Thielen of 10x Research notes that the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decisions could heavily influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month could dampen Bitcoin’s momentum.
Meanwhile, John Glover, Ledn’s CIO, predicts that Bitcoin could experience a short-term correction, potentially dropping to $89,000, before rebounding to over $125,000 later in the quarter. This outlook aligns with historical market behavior, where pullbacks often occur before renewed rallies.
Analysts have also pointed to reduced market liquidity for BTC. They argue that Bitcoin will need an increase in trading volume to sustain its upward momentum and surpass the $105,000 resistance level in January 2025.
Bitcoin Current Position
Currently, Bitcoin trades at $99,234, with short-term support and resistance levels. On the 1-day chart, the asset is holding above the middle band of the Keltner Channel at $97,026, which serves as immediate support. If Bitcoin slips below this level, the lower band at $90,956 could come into play.
Bitcoin 1D Chart
Meanwhile, Bitcoin faces resistance at the upper band of the Keltner Channel at $103,096. Breaking above this resistance could open the door to retesting its December 2024 all-time high above $108,000, potentially entering a price discovery phase.
On the DMI, the +DI is slightly rising at 22.14, while the -DI is decreasing to 21.24, indicating bullish momentum. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) sits at 18.69, showing a weak trend. For Bitcoin to achieve a breakout, the ADX would need to rise.