NYDIG, one of the leading financial services companies in the cryptocurrency markets, evaluated Bitcoin’s recent rally and market indicators in its report this week.
The firm noted that Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $112,000 last week, coinciding with turbulence in traditional markets. The rally also surpassed the previous peak of $109,358 set in January.
The report recalled that Bitcoin experienced a sharp correction of 28.2% before reaching this level, falling to $ 74,400 after Trump’s “Freedom Day” when he began to impose tariffs. However, according to NYDIG, these corrections are a natural part of the uptrend that started at $ 15,460 in November 2022.
Interestingly, NYDIG data suggests that this cycle has been less volatile than previous Bitcoin bull markets. The current cycle has seen losses of 10% or more only seven times, compared to 13 and 10 in the previous two cycles, respectively. What’s more, these declines have been both more frequent and deeper.
The report, which states that Bitcoin has increased by 75% (1.8x) after the last halving on April 20, 2024, predicts that this cycle may be more moderate compared to the past.
Pointing out that Bitcoin has increased 7.1 times compared to closing prices (7.2 times compared to the current high price) since the $ 15,450 bottom seen in November 2022, NYDIG states that a repeat of the 20-fold increases in past cycles is not expected, but there is still significant upside potential.
The report noted that perpetual swap and forward rates, which are indicators of speculative activity, are currently well below historical levels, suggesting that the current rally is not fueled by excessive speculation.
Additionally, the MVRV ratio currently stands at 2.4x, which is low compared to past cycles. NYDIG notes that this indicator has peaked at 4.0x in previous cycles, but with each new cycle these peaks have trended downward.
NYDIG analyzes the coefficients of the rise from bottom to top, indicating that there is still significant upside potential for Bitcoin across possible price scenarios.
*This is not investment advice.