Despite Bitcoin’s recent drop below $60,000, market analysts remain optimistic about the potential for the BTC price to rise to $100,000 by the end of the year.
While this may seem ambitious, several macroeconomic factors could be driving this upward momentum, making such a forecast less far-fetched than it seems.
Prominent crypto analyst Noelle Acheson points out that Bitcoin saw a remarkable 270% increase from August to December 2020 following the previous halving. In her recent “Crypto is Macro” newsletter, she said that Bitcoin would only need a 70% increase to reach $100,000, a much more modest climb compared to its past performance.
FRNT Financial’s David Brickell and former forex trader Chris Mill echoed this sentiment in their “Connecting the Dots” newsletter, stating that current macroeconomic trends are aligned in Bitcoin’s favor. While the market awaits a catalyst, they emphasize that the overall environment is ripe for Bitcoin to continue its upward trajectory.
Another important factor affecting Bitcoin’s potential rally is the Fed’s monetary policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 23. Low interest rates are generally beneficial for risky assets like cryptocurrencies, as they create a more supportive economic environment. Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, suggests that such rate cuts could further fuel Bitcoin’s rise by adding “vigor” to the market.
According to FedWatch data, the probability of a 0.25% rate cut in September is 69%, while the probability of a 0.5% cut is 31%. Some market watchers, such as Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors, predict that these cuts could push Bitcoin’s price to $150,000 by the end of 2024, or even $500,000 in the next five years.
The upcoming US presidential election is another factor that could affect the price of Bitcoin. With the election now looking more competitive, uncertainty is affecting market sentiment. Crypto analyst Noelle Acheson suggests that this uncertainty has contributed to Bitcoin’s recent price drop. In addition, the election could affect Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s policies, with some speculation suggesting that Yellen could take steps to support the economy in favor of the Democratic candidate.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin is also growing. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs this year has drawn significant interest from Wall Street. Major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have announced that they have over $600 million in spot Bitcoin ETFs, signaling increasing institutional adoption.
*This is not investment advice.