How the market is pricing Donald Trump’s election promises 
Finance Nov 16, 2024 Share
Donald Trump has made many promises to get elected the next United States president, starting on January 20, 2025. Yet, the market is fairly skeptical, although partially optimistic, about whether Trump will keep his promises – pricing these events accordingly.
Some of these speculations are open and running on the leading prediction market, Polymarket, which became popular during the elections.
For example, the market sees a 91% chance of Trump implementing the deportation executive action in the first 100 days. Meanwhile, the end of the Ukraine war before the inauguration day has only a 14% chance of occurring, price wagers.
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Among the most notable crypto-related promises are Trump’s creation of a national Bitcoin (BTC) reserve and Ross Ulbricht’s pardon. Notably, the latter has a 71% chance of occurring, while the former is priced at $0.37 per “Yes” share.
Trump Promises and Policies. Source: Polymarket / Finbold
How is the crypto market pricing Donald Trump’s promises
In addition to the two crypto-related promises mentioned above, Donald Trump promised to fire Gary Gensler on day one. This promise was made during the Bitcoin Conference 2024, leading to a huge celebration from the audience, giving Gensler anti-crypto policies.
However, this is a promise technically impossible to keep, as the president can not fire a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) employee, although he could demote him, removing the Chairman from his leadership position.
Nevertheless, Gary Gensler already hinted at a resignation before inauguration day, together with a New York anti-crypto policy softening.
With that, experts already predict Bitcoin could reach the $100,000 price target under Donald Trump’s presidency. An analyst believes the cryptocurrency market could soon see “the biggest bull run ever,” according to different signals.
Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $90,690, up 18.82% in a week – following the election. The leading cryptocurrency is fueling other cryptocurrencies’ rallies, potentially preparing the market for an “Altseason.”
Bitcoin (BTC) weekly price chart. Source: Finbold
On the other hand, Bitcoin bear Peter Schiff warned his followers that Donald Trump will likely break his Bitcoin promise. “It [BTC] is rising despite the spike in the dollar and jump in bond yields, as speculators bet Trump will be the Bitcoin president,” Schiff said. “That’s one of several promises Trump will break.”