Bitcoin (BTC) price reached the $57,000 limit with the sudden drop it experienced today.
Historically, September has been an unstable month for Bitcoin, with analysts at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex noting that the cryptocurrency typically sees an average return of -4.78% and a peak-to-peak decline of 24.6%. If the Fed were to cut interest rates, analysts noted that this could further increase Bitcoin’s volatility, potentially sending prices down by as much as 20%.
“This volatility is often attributed to the end of the summer trading lull, when fund managers return from vacation and human-driven trading activity increases,” Bitfinex researchers said, adding:
“The expected rate cut in September adds another layer of complexity that potentially worsens market volatility.”
Adding to the uncertainty, the U.S. dollar has faced significant challenges in recent months. Dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium signaled a possible rate cut in September, which has weakened the dollar. The dollar is currently at 2024 lows against major currencies such as the euro, pound sterling and yen.
“As recently as April, the dollar’s dominance looked unstoppable. Now there is speculation that interest rates could be cut faster than initially anticipated, potentially by as much as 100 basis points by the end of the year,” said Neil Roarty, an analyst at Stocklytics, noting the shift in market sentiment. “That should cool dollar expectations for the rest of 2024, but we’ll have to watch to see how other central banks respond.”
Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research, echoed these concerns, advising caution despite his optimistic outlook for digital assets in the medium and long term:
“While we have seen near-V-shaped recoveries following declines earlier this year, the underlying market structure and fundamentals have become increasingly weak. Recent data suggests we may be approaching a critical turning point in September where demand will decline.”
*This is not investment advice.