While Trump’s victory was effective in Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency market, today all eyes turned to the FED’s November interest rate decision.
As is known, the FED made its first interest rate cut in September and made an aggressive start to the discount cycle with a 50 basis point cut decision.
After September, dollar, gold, stock market and cryptocurrency investors closely follow the November decision, one of the last two interest rate decisions of 2024, while the questions of whether the FED will continue to cut interest rates and by how much continue to be cut remain important for investors.
When Will the November FED Interest Rate Decision Be Announced?
The FED will announce its November interest rate decision on November 7, 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
In Which Direction Are Expectations Focused?
The FED interest rate decision that global markets are eagerly awaiting will be announced today. The FED last reduced interest rates by 50 basis points to 5 percent.
While the general expectation in the market is that the FED will reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points, analysts expect the FED’s interest rate decision text and FED Chair Jerome Powell’s statements to have an impact on BTC and cryptocurrency prices.
With the FED’s 25 basis point cut, liquidity is expected to increase in the market and the dollar is expected to weaken, supporting risky assets such as Bitcoin.
But with Trump back as president, what do the markets expect in the short term?
“A 25 basis point rate cut is widely expected, with the market pricing in a 96.8% probability of such a move. However, the interest rate market is signaling uncertainty, evidenced by the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to a four-month high of 4.48%. This rise in the Treasury yield reflects expectations that a Trump election victory could lead to higher inflation. Therefore, all attention will be on Powell’s oral statement for near-term forecasts,” Presto Research analyst Min Jung told Coindesk.
Because Trump argues that the US president should have a say in the Fed’s monetary policy decisions and that there are other ways to reduce inflation than by increasing interest rates and that interest rates should be lowered in general.
FalconX Research President David Lawant claimed that the FED decision will not affect Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices and that the decision will not have much significance.
FED Decision Will Be More Important Issue in Bitcoin Than Trump’s Win!
However, Pav Hundal, chief analyst at cryptocurrency exchange Swyftx, said the Fed decision was “likely to be a hotter decision than the US election results.”
“Lower interest rates lower borrowing costs, boost consumer spending and make traditionally safer investments like bonds less attractive, encouraging investors to look to riskier assets for higher returns.
“The market is already taking a risk on Bitcoin again. A 25 basis point cut or larger would accelerate this move and increase the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching six figures by the end of the year.”
According to CME Group’s FED Watch tool, a 25 basis point rate cut in November is priced in at 97.4%, while a 50 basis point cut is priced in at 2.6%.
*This is not investment advice.